Old sets went up. New sets went down. Here is how lopsided it was.
By the person who runs Giraffe Trendz · October 2, 2026 · 5 min read
I get asked which sets are worth holding. I don't like answering that from memory, so I pulled it from the data instead. I took every Near Mint card worth $5 or more on July 30, looked at the same card on October 1, and grouped the changes by set. Only sets with at least 25 of those cards count, which leaves 184 sets.
The headline is simple. 119 sets went up. 34 went down. The rest didn't move. For English cards overall, the typical card gained 4.2%, and 64% of them were higher than they started.
What went up
The top of the list is old. Really old. EX Ruby and Sapphire came out in 2003, and the typical card in it is up 19%. Not one or two chase cards. 88% of the cards I measured in that set went up.
| Set | Typical change | Cards measured | Share that rose |
|---|---|---|---|
| EX Ruby and Sapphire | +19.1% | 105 | 88% |
| Nintendo Promos | +17.8% | 66 | 89% |
| Blister Exclusives | +16.5% | 75 | 89% |
| Diamond and Pearl Promos | +16.4% | 54 | 94% |
| Triumphant | +16.1% | 81 | 85% |
| Vending Machine Series 1 (Japanese) | +15.5% | 36 | 86% |
| Vending Machine Series 3 (Japanese) | +13.9% | 50 | 88% |
| Black and White Promos | +12.9% | 86 | 81% |
| EX Deoxys | +11.6% | 115 | 78% |
Typical change is the median, so one big card cannot drag the set number around.
Look at what's on that list. EX era sets. Promos. Blister and deck exclusives. Japanese vending machine cards from the nineties. None of these can be printed again, and most were never printed in big numbers to begin with.
What went down
Now the other end. This is where it gets one-sided.
| Set | Typical change | Cards measured | Share that rose |
|---|---|---|---|
| ME: Ascended Heroes | -27.8% | 57 | 0% |
| SV10: Destined Rivals | -21.3% | 35 | 6% |
| MEGA Dream ex (Japanese) | -16.4% | 27 | 7% |
| ME: Mega Evolution Promo | -15.3% | 75 | 23% |
| SV: Scarlet & Violet 151 | -10.7% | 42 | 17% |
| SV: Black Bolt | -9.3% | 126 | 14% |
| SV: Prismatic Evolutions | -7.6% | 75 | 20% |
| SV08: Surging Sparks | -7.7% | 35 | 20% |
Ascended Heroes is the one that stopped me. 57 cards worth $5 or more, and zero of them went up. Zero. That's what a new set looks like while product is still landing on shelves. Supply keeps coming, and the price keeps sliding to meet it.
It isn't only the newest release either. Scarlet & Violet 151 and Prismatic Evolutions are the sets everybody fought over, and they're on the down list too.
The same split shows up by rarity
I cut the same cards by rarity to check I wasn't fooling myself. Holo Rares, the classic foil from older sets, gained 7.3% and 77% of them rose. Illustration Rares fell 10.1%, with only 16% rising. Special Illustration Rares fell 12.7%, with only 10% rising. Those two rarities only exist in modern sets. Same story, different angle.
What I take from it
- If a set is still being printed, I assume its singles are falling until the data says otherwise.
- Old sets with small print runs are doing the opposite, and it's broad. It's most of the set, not one card.
- This is nine weeks. It is not a law. A reprint announcement or a hot new release can flip a set fast.
You can check any set yourself. Open the sets page, pick one, and look at how many of its cards are up versus down. I'd trust that count over any single card's chart.
Keep Reading
- Japanese or English? The same Pokémon is not the same price.For 130 of 153 Pokémon, the typical English card costs more than the typical Japanese one. Umbreon is the widest gap. Pikachu is one of the few exceptions.
- One in five cards moved 20% in nine weeks. At every price.I expected cheap cards to be jumpy and expensive cards to be steady. The data says the jumpiness is about the same from $1 to $100 and up, and the reason is how few times a card actually sells.
- Which Pokémon carry the market? I added it up.One copy of every Near Mint card, summed by Pokémon. Charizard and Pikachu lead, but they are not the ones growing fastest.
Market reporting, not financial advice. See how the numbers are gathered.